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'Political Changes in Northeast Asia in 2012 and Building a New Regional Order'Dispatch 7 from the 7th Jeju Forum for Peace and Prosperity, May 31-June 2
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During one of five concurrent sessions on Saturday, June 1 at the 7th Jeju Forum for Peace and Prosperity, a team of panelists at the session titled “Political Changes in Northeast Asia in 2012 and Building a New Regional Order” discussed the building of a regional order in Asia in Crystal Hall A of the Haevichi Hotel & Resort Jeju.

Panelists for the session:
Gilbert John Ikenberry, Political Science professor out of Princeton University;
Nodari Simoniya, professor at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO);
Stein Tonnesson, former director of the Peace Institute based in Oslo, Norway;
Kim Young Hie, senior correspondent operating out of the Joongang Ilbo newspaper in Seoul;
and Zhang Xiaoming, professor at the School of International Studies at Peking University.

The discussion was moderated by Nayan Chanda, Director of Publications at the Yale Center for the Study of Globalization.

The idea of the various governments in Asia, with all of their diverse cultural backgrounds, economic strengths, and vulnerabilities, political outlooks and diplomatic ties, coming together in a peaceful and mutually beneficial manner brought the discussion immediately to China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea.

Professor Tonnesson said that with territorial disputes like that of the Spratly Islands being claimed by no less than six sovereign states (China among them), and that of the Liancourt Rocks (Dokdo in Korean and Takeshima in Japanese), a “law of the sea” should be pronounced and ratified by all regional powers that have commercial and diplomatic interest in Asia. Tonnesson said that such territorial disputes cannot be cleared up historically, since, specifically in the case of the Liancourt Rocks, there is no clear understanding of which state is in possession of the “infinitely small” Dokdo / Takeshima.

Tonnesson also argued that sovereign states, should not be able to project power over shipping lanes and cruising grounds based upon the small islands that are in territorial dispute.He cited the example of Japan in specific.

“If you have countries like Japan that [with an] extremely small piece of land outside Japan shall have a vast economic zone, which I think has very little basis in the law of the sea. And once that has been decided it shall have the beneficial effect of...making things easier,” for trade and diplomacy,” he said.

Tonnesson’s comments immediately drew criticism from Kim Young Hie, who urged Tonnesson to “look at the facts” with regards to Korea’s claims over Dokdo, briefly arguing that the historical record does indeed favor Korean possession of those islands. Professor Zhang responded to Tonnesson’s proposed “law of the sea” by stating that China, “has never regarded the South China Sea as her territory. We only claimed the islands in the South China Sea as our territory.” He added that China has also, “never challenged free navigation in the South China Sea.”

Professor Simoniya expressed concern over America’s involvement in Asian regional diplomacy. Simoniya quoted American president Barack Obama as saying that “America is back to the Pacific.” Given his concern, however, the professor from MGIMO University added that he is for United States involvement in the reunification of the Korean peninsula. “I’m for engagement,” he said.

Professor Ikenberry expanded on Professor’s Simoniya’s thoughts concerning American diplomacy in the “Pacific Rim” by first concurring with his Russian counterpart that America, while more committed to Asian affairs, “had never really left.” Ikenberry averred that the Bush Administration was “not doing enough” to engage diplomatically and procedurally in Asian affairs during its tenure. President Obama’s declaration of interest in Asia is primarily of a benign character, with the aim of increasing political stability to areas as far flung as Indonesia, Pakistan and, of course, China: “The order that we want to see in Asia is that it’s open...to the rules of law...[and] can be compatible with Chinese security and with greater Chinese participation.”

Ikenberry added that, “History hasn’t told us yet what the order will look like,” and closed his comments in this cycle by saying that America is too committed economically to back out of Asia.

Kim Young Hie expressed disappointment that Obama had not done a better job of negotiating with North Korean leader Kim Jung Il before the latter’s passing. Now, with Kim Jong Un ascendent in North Korea, Kim Young Hie is worried that the latter’s consolidation of his regime will take precedence over any attempts at negotiation, adding that American forces on the peninsula act as “psychological assurance” against not only attacks by North Korea, but by China as well, despite its “peaceful rise.”

The discussion continued with considerations of China. Citing his years of experience in that country, Professor Tonnesson stated that no one should expect trouble with China from Vietnam: “No senior [Vietnamese] commander wants to pursue conflict with China.” Tonnesson compared the regimes of these countries when he stated that they both face similar problems: greater economic prosperity leading to the liberalization of their populations.

Professor Zhang posited a similar idea when he stated that there “might be a change in leadership in China” as a result of the liberalizing tendency of economic prosperity. A change in regime? “The communist party in China will remain.”

With regards to economic prosperity and peace in Asia, Professor Tonnesson had this much to say about it: “There is a very clear connection between peace and the quest for prosperity.” Given that China’s internal problems are starting to wear on its high rate of economic expansion, Tonnesson closed by asking what would the effect on Asian regional security be if China’s economic growth slowed to a halt?

Editor's Note
The 7th Jeju Forum for Peace and Prosperity, organized by the Jeju Peace Institute and hosted and sponsored by several organizations and corporations, began at 4 p.m on May 31. with the Special Session “Conversation with Steve Wozniak: The End of the PC Era and Future of the IT Industry.” A total of 58 sessions in the categories of prosperity, environment, peace, gender, education, and one titled etc. will be conducted from May 31 to June 2 at the Haevichi Hotel & Resort Jeju, Seogwipo City.

Under the theme of "New Trends and the Future of Asia," the 7th Jeju Forum will examine political and social issues affecting the area within a historical context to encourage cooperation and community building in the region. The forum will also afford the opportunity to simultaneously gauge the political and financial climate throughout the world to better understand Asia’s position within it. As this year marks the 20th anniversary since the establishment of diplomatic relations between Korea and China, there will be several sessions dedicated to the future of this union like “Korean Unification and China,” and “20 Years of Diplomatic Relations between Korea and China - Push Forward Strategic Cooperative Partnership.”

Hundreds of incumbent and former heads of state, experts, leading businessmen, academics, and activists including former Prime Minister of Australia Paul John Keating, former Prime Minister of Thailand Abhisit Vejjajiva, Chinese People’s Political Party Consultative Conference (CPPCC) National Committee Member Xie Bo Yang, and Apple Inc. Co-founder Steve Wozniak will be on hand for the three-day event to discuss the future of Asia.

Some of the other topics to be addressed during this three-day conference include the future of the IT Industry, new growth engines for the region, the environment, financial cooperation, welfare expansion, and others.

¨Ï Jeju Weekly 2009 (http://www.jejuweekly.com)
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