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North Korea and the chicken or the egg: Denuclearization, reunification, international relationsDispatch 10 from the 7th Jeju Forum for Peace and Prosperity, May 31-June 2
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On the third and final day of the 7th Jeju Forum for Peace and Prosperity, the session titled “Whither the Post-Kim Jong Il System in North Korea?: What Can Outsiders Do for Peace and Security in Northeast Asia?” was conducted at 1:40 p.m. on June 2.

The majority of this session was presented in Korean and Japanese with English interpretation.

Scholars well versed in a variety of fields ranging from peace and unification strategy to political science discussed the possibility of denuclearization in the North, reunification on the Korean peninsula, and the current state of inter-Korea and international relations.

Much attention was given to the controversial relationship between China and North Korea, the potential collapse of the North’s regime, and how concerned countries can induce North Korea to become a normalized member of the international community.

“Since autumn of 2009 the relationship between China and North Korea changed based on the sense of alliance. [It] is now more of a reciprocal type of relationship between the two,” said Lee Jong Seok, Sejong Institute, former Minister of Unification.

“Based on the economic cooperation between China and North Korea, the [North Korean] economy, I think, will see a rebound. I do not believe that the economic situation in North Korea will lead to its collapse,” said Lee.

John Delury, scholar of International Studies at Yonsei University, made a case as to why the question of Northern collapse causes perpetual distraction. Rather, he advised, the focus should be on how to handle the North in its current state.

“What we can't figure out is how to deal with [North Korea] such as it is,” said Delury.

On the topic of collapse, Stein Tonnesson, Peace Research Institute Oslo, added “I’m not saying that North Korea will disappear but I'm saying that the regime in its present form is unlikely to survive.”

Moderator Moon Chung-in posed to the panel a series of questions that continue to be the source of heated debate among scholars and policy makers alike.

“What actions should the international community take if the North continues to show provocative behavior such as the third nuclear testing and another ballistic missile testing?” asked Moon.

“Whenever they [North Korea] launch a rocket, it does not automatically mean they conduct a nuclear test. If they go for that path the Chinese reaction will be different than in the past. Because if they continue with the third rocket launch it would be totally different from the Kim Jong Il regime because it is being done by the Kim Jong Un regime,” said Jin Jingyi, Peking University Center for Korean Studies.

“What [other countries] say is [North Korea] must abandon nuclear weapons, then we will normalize relations,” said Masao Okonogi, Keio University Faculty of Law and Graduate School.
“But they say it is about survival, so they first want to normalize relations and only then will they abandon weapons...it is certainly a chicken or egg relationship.”

“The peace and prosperity of Northeast Asia is most important...We need to normalize the relationship between North Korea-US and North Korea-Japan and then afterwards can we say that North Korea does not need nuclear weapons anymore,” said Okonogi.

Shifting the discussion toward resolving issues with the North, Moon asked the panel, “What would be the most feasible and desirable approach to North Korea under the Kim Jong Un regime?”

In response, Jin said “North Korea should be directed to other factors that may attract their attention and one of those factors may be economic benefits [of denuclearization]. If they focus on [building their] economy then they might believe that they can achieve what they want without the nuclear weapons.”

The Kim Jong Un regime of North Korea, following the death of Kim Jong Il, in December 2011, is facing criticism and sanctions by the international community due to its provocative action of rocket launching despite strong warnings of restraint.

The session was followed by Q&A with the panel.

Editor's Note
The 7th Jeju Forum for Peace and Prosperity, organized by the Jeju Peace Institute and hosted and sponsored by several organizations and corporations, began at 4 p.m on May 31. with the Special Session “Conversation with Steve Wozniak: The End of the PC Era and Future of the IT Industry.” A total of 58 sessions in the categories of prosperity, environment, peace, gender, education, and one titled etc. will be conducted from May 31 to June 2 at the Haevichi Hotel & Resort Jeju, Seogwipo City.

Under the theme of "New Trends and the Future of Asia," the 7th Jeju Forum will examine political and social issues affecting the area within a historical context to encourage cooperation and community building in the region. The forum will also afford the opportunity to simultaneously gauge the political and financial climate throughout the world to better understand Asia’s position within it. As this year marks the 20th anniversary since the establishment of diplomatic relations between Korea and China, there will be several sessions dedicated to the future of this union like “Korean Unification and China,” and “20 Years of Diplomatic Relations between Korea and China - Push Forward Strategic Cooperative Partnership.”

Hundreds of incumbent and former heads of state, experts, leading businessmen, academics, and activists including former Prime Minister of Australia Paul John Keating, former Prime Minister of Thailand Abhisit Vejjajiva, Chinese People’s Political Party Consultative Conference (CPPCC) National Committee Member Xie Bo Yang, and Apple Inc. Co-founder Steve Wozniak will be on hand for the three-day event to discuss the future of Asia.

Some of the other topics to be addressed during this three-day conference include the future of the IT Industry, new growth engines for the region, the environment, financial cooperation, welfare expansion, and others.

¨Ï Jeju Weekly 2009 (http://www.jejuweekly.com)
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